Bending the Third Rail
Because We Should, We Can, We Do
Friday, January 12, 2007
Set Up
John Burns, who has been doing outstanding reporting for the New York Times in Iraq, is reporting that Bush's escalation with it's benchmarks is a set-up to oust al Maliki:
A Shiite political leader who has worked closely with the Americans in the past said the Bush benchmarks appeared to have been drawn up in the expectation that Mr. Maliki would not meet them. "He cannot deliver the disarming of the militias," the politician said, asking that he not be named because he did not want to be seen as publicly criticizing the prime minister. "He cannot deliver a good program for the economy and reconstruction. He cannot deliver on services. This is a matter of fact. There is a common understanding on the American side and the Iraqi side."

Views such as these — increasingly common among the political class in Baghdad — are often accompanied by predictions that Mr. Maliki will be forced out as the crisis over the militias builds. The Shiite politician who described him as incapable of disarming militias suggested he might resign; others have pointed to an American effort in recent weeks to line up a “moderate front” of Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish political leaders outside the government, and said that the front might be a vehicle for mounting a parliamentary coup against Mr. Maliki, with behind-the-scenes American support.
It's certainly logical and one of several good explanations for Bush's behavior. The other I'm reading a lot is that al Maliki is being set up for failure to justify a withdrawal of the U.S. Frankly I think the former is more likely than the later. But who knows with this bunch.

From my point of view, it doesn't seem to matter who is in charge of the Iraqi government because the government is not a significant player in the whole equation. Bush continues to operate as if there is a government when in fact the country is already, de facto, divided into sectarian regions all vying for the oil revenue. Does anyone really think that "moderate" Kurds, Shiites or Sunni's can do any better than al Maliki?
Written at 10:08 AM by Greyhair.
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