Bending the Third Rail
Because We Should, We Can, We Do
Thursday, February 15, 2007
Barry Ritholtz is making a bold prediction.

The most recent Gross Domestic Product (GDP) that was released shows an quite robust economy. This chart shows GDP with the latest number and gives a picture of an economy in pretty good shape (click for enlarged image):

Hey, who can argue with stability and the soft landing scenario when you have GDP bumping along at a steady 3% rate or so?

But Barry sees storm clouds on the horizon. Anyone who follows these things knows that there's the preliminary release of government statistics, then there's the revision. Barry gathers some other economic indicators and predicts that the revised GDP number will be somewhat different:

Whoa .....

If Barry is correct, we're looking at an economy that is trending in the wrong direction, not bumping along at a steady pace.

My suspicions are that Barry is correct, but I will update you'all when the revised numbers are released.