Bending the Third Rail
Because We Should, We Can, We Do
Sunday, November 05, 2006
No Biggie
Anyone notice the latest GOP talking point regarding losing their butts in the House? Essentially the argument is, hey, it's no big deal, happens all the time in a Preznit's second term .... yawn.

Blogging is terrific. Within minutes, we get the straight scoop on this crap, this time via Kevin Drum:
Nice try, guys, but here's the reality. Up through the 70s, big swings in House elections were common, but in the last 20 years there's only been a single year with a big swing (1994). Aside from that, the average change has been less than five seats. You can see the same thing if you look only at sixth-year midterms:


1958: 49 seats

1966: 47 seats

1974: 49 seats

1986: 5 seats

1998: 5 seats

See the trend? In the two sixth-year midterms since 1980, only five seats changed hands. There are plenty of reasons for this, including improved gerrymandering, huge money imbalances, and increased self-segregation. More here if you're interested.

Bottom line: Thirty years ago a pickup of 25 seats wouldn't have been that big a deal. Today it is. If Dems win that many seats, it really will be a historic victory.
Of course any true blue Bush believer isn't interested in the truth anyway. But it's always nice to have some handy so that anyone defending their position has to know that it's bullshit in their heart of hearts.
Written at 9:54 AM by Greyhair.
0 comments