Bending the Third Rail
Because We Should, We Can, We Do
Monday, October 16, 2006
California: Dead Heat or Dead Heat
I got this email from the Angelides campaign today:
CALIFORNIA SURVEY of 500 likely voters
Tuesday-Wednesday October 10-11, 2006

1* If the election for Governor were held today, would you vote for Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger or for Democrat Phil Angelides?

49% Schwarzenegger
40% Angelides
5% some other candidate
7% not sure

2* Do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression of:

Schwarzenegger Angelides
Very favorable 24% 10 %
Somewhat favorable 33% 34%
Somewhat unfavorable 24% 28%
Very unfavorable 18% 25%
Not sure 1% 3%

3* How would you rate the job George W. Bush has been doing as President? do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he's been doing?

23% strongly approve
15% somewhat approve
12% somewhat disapprove
47% strongly disapprove
3% not sure

4* How would you rate the job Arnold Schwarzenegger has been doing as Governor? do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he's been doing?

23% strongly approve
31% somewhat approve
23% somewhat disapprove
22% strongly disapprove
2% not sure

NOTE: Margin of Sampling Error, +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence

The latest poll on the Governor's race shows Schwarzenegger with a single-digit lead, still mired below 50%, despite spends tens of millions of dollars on negative attack ads. The survey, conducted by Rasmussen Reports on October 10-11, shows Schwarzenegger with a 49% - 40% lead. Independent studies have shown Rasmussen was the most accurate poll during the 2004 election, and Schwarzenegger senior strategist Matt Dowd has called their numbers "hard to beat."
This is one of those classic good news bad news deals. It's good news that Ahhhnold is below 50% and that Angelides is now less than double digits behind. However, it's bad news that a seven point deficit is considered good news.

Believe it or not, I think Angelides still has a chance. One person "in-the-know" that I spoke to said that the unions are just "worn out" by the mid-cycle special proposition election. But they do have a bucket of money to spend on Tee Vee, and as we get closer to election day, they seem to be finally starting to spend it. Angelides is also starting to advertise, which seems to be working given the progress in the polls. Finally, I really think Californians haven't been paying much attention to anything in the election. Everyone complains about "political fatigue" and the polls may still be quite soft. It wouldn't surprise me to see Angelides pull it out. But I'm not holding my breath either.
Written at 2:38 PM by Greyhair.
0 comments