First, feel free to blog whore so long as it's in topic. No point in rewriting everything in comments if you've already got it up. Second, I really enjoy these semi arguments we have. It's so nice to trade points in reasoned discussion. It forces me to think.

So, compliments being said as preface,

I do agree with the point expressed in the excerpt, but, I would argue that analysis only applies to a segment. The point I was trying to express is that approval ratings have peeled away sequentially with some overlap. I don't argue that 9-11 bought this president tons of goodwill(which is pretty sick if you think about it too much,) but it is the manner in which the support has peeled off with which I would argue. It has created a nearly straight trend line, but it hasn't been a uniform erosion. First it was the Dems leaving Bush, then came the independents, and now the Repubs. Overlap, of course, but that's been the pattern.

I agree with the psychology argument, but I think it oversimplifies and doesn't reflect what's really gone on. Alot of Dems left over the invasion of Iraq, for example. I would argue that that action was seen to burst their bubble of trust and goodwill. For the Bush base, they had stayed with him through it all because they believed he was a man of strength, character and morals, that they could rely on because he was "one of them." Harriet Miers broke that belief.

I think I'm picking nits here. I'm just gonna stop this.

Mike

Not nit piking, just two blind men holding different ends of the elephant (I won't say which end you have)

;)

I would agree with you as far as it goes and relates to those who are informed. Unfortunately, the great majority of voters aren't and simply respond to gut level emotions and intuition. That's who Bush has lost. The momentum of losing the left (which he never had), then the middle inevitably leads to losing some on the right. Hell, 4% in the poll didn't even know who Bush was. So we're not talking about an exceptionally well-informed voter class here. Momentum and "trendiness" matter as much as substance these days. It's now cool to hate Bush whereas after 911 and through the lense of trauma, it was cool to love him.

I still think that in any ordinary time (read non-crisis period), Bush would have never been very popular. He started out a virtual minority President and was falling when 911 happened. The polls I've looked at clearly suggest that without the "war on terror", Bush would have lost in 2004.

Take that, and $4, and you can buy yourself a mocha.