Bending the Third Rail
Because We Should, We Can, We Do
Friday, January 26, 2007
Lay Low Dude
BAGHDAD — Muqtada Sadr, the radical anti-American cleric, has backed away from confrontation with U.S. and Iraqi forces in recent weeks, a move that has surprised U.S. officials who long have characterized his followers as among the greatest threats to Iraq's security.


"He's afraid he'll get into a losing war," said Suha Azzawi, a professor of political science at the University of Baghdad. "He's ordered the militias to temporarily leave their positions. They will continue their activities after the crackdown."
Al Sadr has all the time in the world while the U.S. does not. I guarantee you that al Maliki has told Sadr to just cool it for awhile while the American's wipe out the Sunni resistance at which time the U.S. will withdraw. Then Shiites can have their way, or at least preserve their best fighters for the civil war after the American's leave. There's also still the Badr corp (Iranian Shiites) to contend with, who may not be so patient, particularly if there is a U.S. action against Iran.

The wild card in this tactic is the largely Sunni region. Will other Sunni nations allow an all out war against the Sunni's in Iraq? Will Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan allow a Iranian-type theocracy from Iran to Lebannon? They are likely to see Iraq as the battlefield to stem the tide of Iranian influence into the region. And none of this even takes into consideration the Kurds vs. Turkey, and the various radical Shiite groups throughout Iraq that may not be so patient. For example, I could totally see al Sadr being assassinated by Shiites and blaming it on the U.S., the Iraq government or Sunni's. And of course there's that little matter of Israel/U.S. vs. Iran .......

It's looking like the best plan for al Sadr is to split the difference. Al Sadr can openly lay low while continuing guerrilla activities such as sniping and IED's that will likely be blamed on the Sunni's. This continues the resistance to the U.S. occupation while not leaving fingerprints and while replenishing/maintaining Sadr's fighting strength for the post-American fight. There will now be an additional 20,000 targets. And like I said, Sadr's at home and has all the time in the world .....