Bill Gross runs the largest bond fund in the nation, PIMCO
. The Angry Bear
has a post up showing how Bill analyzes the bond market, to determine buy/sell points for bonds (and incidently, predict the direction of the economy).
Like most of these types of posts, I won't go into a great deal of detail about what Gross does for analysis. You can read about it at The Angry Bear. I will say the Bill Gross is rarely wrong about the direction of the bond market and the economy.
In summary, this is the money quote from Gross:
"The current data point in Chart I is not only calling for an end to the bear bond market, but a recession at some point 12-18 months hence. . . Hopefully you can take solace from a new timing indicator that says the worst is over for bonds"
Good times ahead if you own lots of bonds. Bad times ahead if you stay in the stock market past the 12-18 month time frame or if you work for a living.
Thanks George. Thanks for a tepid economic recovery that benefitted the rich, and an impending recession that inevitably will balance out the excesses of this economic expansion.