Bending the Third Rail
Because We Should, We Can, We Do
Thursday, February 22, 2007
The Market
Barry notes an interesting datapoint today:
Here's a data point to make you stop and think: As of today, more people have borrowed money from their their brokers to buy stocks than ever before.

That number was reached this past month, with Margin debt hitting an all-time high, passing even the days of the tech/telecom/internet boom.
This is typically a big big warning sign. When people are willing to take such risk in a stock market gamble, it often is the mark of a market that is ready to drop significantly. Barry then goes on to highlight several other measures that typically have been warning lights for the market, all ignored thus far.

The more of these indicators there are, it seems to me the more fragile the stock market rally is. There are no new paradigms in the stock market. The market has shot straight up despite history telling us that this is unnatural. At a minimal, we are overdue for a sharp pullback and at worst for the short-term (secular) bull market to end. It's like repealing the laws of gravity for the market to just continue upward. My bet is that this summer will look pretty ugly.