More than a few people are writing articles warning of an impending war with Iran. I've thought war with Iran was baked in the cake some time ago. But I've also heard of an "impending" attack on Iran for well over a year.

Those in the administration are not to be believed. They have zero credibility and their denials that they are getting ready for war with Iran are hollow. But those who are screaming about an impending war have somewhat the same problem, having screamed about an impending attack for a long time. So who to believe?

I don't have the faintest idea.

I can only say that those who think war is imminent tend to have more evidence. Actions speak louder than words and more troops in Iraq, two carrier groups in the Persian Gulf, lots of sabre rattling, a trumped up propagandistic campaign against Iran certainly seem to point towards war. I've read that if a third carrier group is sent, it's a slam dunk.

War with Iran would be one of the stupidest blunders in history. The damage it would/could do to the U.S. in the short, medium and long term is incalculable. As our child Preznit is immune to common sense, intelligence, informed counsel, and anything else of substance that doesn't appeal to the lizard portion of the brain, count me as pessimistic and girding for a war. Some have some ideas of how to stop it, but I just don't see it happening.

Here is how the usually careful Kevin Drum frames an upcoming war with Iran politically:

Pretty speeches about how you [Democrats] regret voting for the Iraq war are all very fine, but the real test is how you react to the next big marketing campaign for war. It's coming, it's going to seem plausible, and it's going to whip a lot of people into the usual frenzy. Any Democratic politician who hasn't thought about how they're going to deal with this is being willfully delusional.