Bending the Third Rail
Because We Should, We Can, We Do
Wednesday, December 20, 2006
Bush's Plan
Juan Cole has written a post describing the Iraqi politics of Bush's plan to isolate Moqtada al Sadr. In that post he speculates that the coalition they are trying to build is highly unlikely to hold as a cohesive unit, rather that al Sadr is more likely to form a coalition that actually works. He then concludes:
The real problem is that Parliament isn't very powerful. Although the NYT blames Sadr's boycott for the failure of parliament to reach a quorum the last couple of times it tried to meet, in fact it is because many of the parliamentarians virtually live abroad (they like London) and just aren't around in Baghdad to take part in a vote.

The idea of the Bush administration is that you cut Sadr loose in parliament, so that the prime minister doesn't depend on him, and then you have him call in the Iraqi Army against the Mahdi Army militiamen and defeat them. The Sunnis would thereby be reassured, the thinking goes, that the Sadrist death squads have been dealt with, and the Sunni Arabs would gradually become more willing to rein in their paramilitary. I don't think it is plausible that the US military can defeat a widespread and entrenched social movement like the Sadrists at this late date, so we are in for a lot of trouble.
This is another example of magical thinking. If they just "eliminate" al Sadr and his two to three million supporters who live in Sadr City, then the Sunni's will magically see the wisdom of power sharing with a majority Shiite government. I'm not even sure this is the best of the awful options in front of the Bush government. But then magical thinking is a hallmark of a dry-drunk, now isn't it.
Written at 9:04 AM by Greyhair.
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