Bending the Third Rail
Because We Should, We Can, We Do
Wednesday, November 08, 2006
Setting the Stage
Political Wire does a good job setting the stage for determining the Montana and Virginia Senate races:
Montana Vote Situation: Jon Tester leads Conrad Burns by approximately 1,700 votes (as of 11am EDT) and counting. In Silver Bow County (Butte), a Democratic stronghold, votes are still being counted but Tester is winning there with 66% of the vote. We expect to gain the majority of these uncounted votes and to add to Tester's margin.
Montana Process: When the counting phase is completed, a canvass will verify the vote tallies. That process could take as long as 48 hours, and must begin within three days and end within seven. Unless the canvass shows the margin to be within 1/4 of 1%, there is no recount. As the loser, Burns would have to request the recount. When the votes are all counted, we expect to be outside that recount margin.

Virginia Vote Situation: Jim Webb is up by approximately 8,000 votes and once the provisional ballots are counted, we expect Webb's margin to increase. (Please note that VA absentees were included in the tallies from last night.)

Virginia Process: A canvass is underway to verify the results and we expect that process to finish within a day or so. To be in recount, the margin needs to be less than 1% and Allen (as the loser) would have to request it. Because of Virginia voting laws, the margin would have to be much tighter than it currently is to see any change in the outcome. Given the current margins, that is highly, highly unlikely.
Look to the Republican spin machine to go into full motion, finding every possible way to try to sway the election in Virginia. Trust me, every legal statute and regulation is being combed for a way to change the outcome. Short of that, delaying the result is the second best alternative which would give them time to bribe Boltin' Joe or some other minsa minsa Democrat and to generally cause disarray in the Senate.