Bending the Third Rail
Because We Should, We Can, We Do
Tuesday, April 18, 2006
Miscalculations
Billmon does a thorough examination of something I was referring to the other day. Namely, he discusses the high possibility of miscalculation leading to a war with Iran. Here's his concluding graf:
In other words, there is real risk that key players in the crisis — Iranian as well as American — are fundamentally misreading the situation. They may not understand that their counterparts on the other side are perfectly willing to escalate, because they actually want war, or at least are pulled in that direction by their own political and/or strategic dilemmas.

However, there is an even more terrible risk here, which is that both sides in this crisis may want a war, although for different reasons. And when both parties to a confrontation like this one want a war, they usually get one.
For a really good reading of what drives the Iranian side of the miscalculation (I think we're pretty familiar with the American side), go read his latest post linked above.
Written at 9:13 AM by Greyhair.
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